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Two Indian-origin researchers, Ronojoy Adhikari & Rajesh Singh, from the University of Cambridge have come up with a new mathematical model that predicts a flat 49-day nationwide lockdown—or sustained lockdown with periodic relaxation extending over two months—may be necessary to prevent COVID-19 resurgence in India.
The paper titled ‘Age-structured impact of social distancing on the COVID-19 epidemic in India’ shows that the 21-day lockdown that the Indian government has imposed is unlikely to be effective, and “there will be a resurgence of COVID-19 at the end of it”.
“The structures of social contact critically determine the spread of the infection and, in the absence of vaccines, the control of these structures through large-scale social distancing measures appears to be the most effective means of mitigation,” the authors wrote.
“Our principal conclusion is that the three-week lockdown will be insufficient. Our model suggests sustained periods of lockdown with periodic relaxation will reduce the number of cases to levels where individualised social contact tracing and quarantine may become feasible,” the paper elaborated.
Each of the four panels shows the variation in the number of infectives with lockdowns of various durations. The three-week lockdown starting 25 March does not prevent resurgence after its suspension as shown in the first panel. Neither does a further lockdown of 28 days spaced by a 5-day suspension, shown in the second panel. The protocols comprising of three lockdowns with 5-day relaxations (21LD-5-28LD-5-18LD) and a single 49-day lockdown reduce case numbers below 10.
While looking at mathematical models, it’s important to understand their limitations. The proposed Cambridge model has some of its own limitations as the paper notes, “It is possible to have differentiated controls which apply distinct social distancing measures at different times and for different durations, we do not explore these here as the general setting”. Read more here.
The research paper is based on mathematical models with assumptions. We urge our readers to treat this objectively, as is the intention of the research paper. As of now, there is no official news on the extension of the lockdown. We request everyone to beware of fake news floating around on social media platforms.
Read the full research paper on Research Gate.
Feature Image Credit - National Magazine
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