This article will be updated once results are officially declared by the Election Commission of India.
Indians are watching with bated breath as the results from five state assembly elections pour in. The citizens of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Mizoram, Telangana, and Chhattisgarh participated in what has been called the “semi-final” to next year’s General Election and here’s why.
These five state assembly races were considered to dictate the perception of power held by the BJP and Congress leading up to 2019. Essentially, pandits say that if the Indian National Congress managed to win majorities, it would challenge the dominance of the saffron wave – an especially precarious situation for Modi in the face of the upcoming Lok Sabha election in 2019.
The Congress winning these five states would also garner more public respect for Rahul Gandhi, who will be credited for running successful campaigns, coming out from under the shadow of his mother, Sonia Gandhi, and challenging a chai-walla-turned-Prime-Minister, Narendra Modi, who is hailed as the poster child for the “Indian Dream.”
These elections are believed to add fuel to an already stoked fire because, according to mainstream media, Modi has been criticised for slow responses to mob lynchings and the Unnao and Kathua rape cases and, in the case of rising pollution,Sabarimala temple issue and honour killings, no response at all.
From anti-incumbency votes in three states to regional parties dominating in the other two, here’s a state-wise breakdown of the assembly elections of 2018:
How Important Is Madhya Pradesh And Who Is Likely To Win It?
With a considerably high voter turnout of 74.6% this year, a 3.5% increase from 2013, Madhya Pradesh had 116 state-assembly seats up for grabs. Madhya Pradesh is coveted political footing because it is considered influential in the General Elections of 2019 owing to the 230 constituencies included in the state. According to the the exit polls, the Congress has 111 seats with the BJP following closely with 110. This loss could come as a major setback for BJP, which won the 2013 Assembly elections by securing 165 seats. Despite the Congress’ lead at the moment, Madhya Pradesh is proving to be a very close call.
Is Rajasthan’s Swing State Status A Threat To The BJP?
Rajasthan earns its “revolving door” reputation because it has had ministers from alternating parties for every assembly election since 1993. Today, as of 7:45 p.m., Rajasthan has favoured the Congress who has secured 99 out of 199 seats. But, closely chasing the 100 seat majority, is the BJP with 73 seats. Interestingly, three quarters of the Rajasthani population is young, lives in rural areas, and is concerned about development. So Sachin Pilot, a relatable young face of the Congress challenging and beating the current Chief Minister and BJP member, Vasundhara Raje is not shocking, especially when he has promised free education for girl children, pensions for farmers, and an equitable distribution of resources.
A Glimpse Of The Congress’ Fight For The North East Through Mizoram
After a whopping 80% voter turnout, the Mizo National Front (MNF), a local political party, has managed to secure 26 seats in the Mizoram State Assembly pushing for prohibition on alcohol, infrastructural development, and overall state-wise development. In a decisive win, the MNF came out on top of the Congress that managed to get only 5 seats, lost the only north-eastern state it dominated for 10 years, and paved the way for a saffron wave in the region. Chief Minister Lal Thanhawla, who is aligned with the Congress, has submitted his resignation. Adding salt to its wounds, the Congress must now navigate diplomacy with MNF President, Zoramthanga, who acknowledged his party’s role in the NDA, a centre-right political alliance led by the BJP, and rejected the idea of a coalition government in the state.
How Will The Telangana Election Impact South India?
Based on exit poll results and the vote count as of this afternoon, the Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) seems to have retained its power and how. According to the statistics released by the Election Commission of India, TRS is on its way to making history by bagging 87 of the 119 seats up for grabs. The Congress secured 19. This iconic win has proven to be a vengeful counter attack by Chief Minister K Chandrasekhar Rao who also managed to shake the foundation of the alliance between the Congress and Telugu Desam Party (TDP). In a nutshell, this alliance was counting on the state’s dominant castes to vote in its favour because the TRS is led by Rao, who represents a minority caste group. However, their calculations have been left proven grossly inaccurate. Now, the TDP must justify its unsuccessful partnership with the Congress while dealing with other consequences of these results.
Is This The End Of BJP’s 5-Year-Long Reign In Chhattisgarh?
This election’s result in Chhattisgarh could very well mean the end of BJP member Raman Singh’s five-year-long term as Chief Minister. As of this evening, the Congress has bagged 68 out of 90 seats, earning the largest electoral win in Chhattisgarh’s political history. The Congress’ effective strategies proposing to raise the minimum support price of paddy has greatly worked in its favour. The BJP’s weakened welfare systems in the state added to the Congress’ existing stronghold.
So What Does All Of This Mean?
Modi has been on the defensive on issues from demonetisation to the lowly sliding rupee, and this election setback for the BJP could further throw the party into limbo with infighting, especially because it saw some high-profile departures from its ranks, The Bloomberg reports. But on a positive note for the BJP, there is disagreement on how strongly state elections impact national voting trends. Although these victories give the impression that the Congress is making firm strides towards power, the party cannot coast through the 2019 Lok Sabha elections with perception alone, especially when it was ousted in 2014 by an earthquake of anti-incumbency sentiments that shook the party. To ensure that voters gravitate towards them, members of the Congress are yet to fully convince voters of two things: first, that the BJP is undeserving of trust and second, that their political party is.
Today’s results serve as important and surprising lessons for us all, especially for the two major parties of India preparing to go head to head again in 2019.
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Written and researched by Rhea Arora and Nikhita Arora.
Update (Dec. 12, 2018)
After election day, the Election Commission of India has reported a new vote count as follows: To win Madhya Pradesh, parties needed 116/230 seats. The Congress got 114, BJP got 109, and others got seven. In Rajasthan, the BJP won 73 seats, the Congress won 99, and other parties won 27. A 100/199 majority was needed to win the state. In Mizoram, the MNF won 26 seats, the Congress won 5, the BJP got 1, and others won 8, out of a total of 40 seats. The Telangana state election was secured by TRS who won 88 seats out of 119. The Congress and BJP followed with 19 and 1, respectively. Other parties won 11. Finally, in Chhattisgarh, the Congress won 68 seats, the BJP won 15, and others won 7 out of a total of 90 seats. The Congress has managed to win both, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, while outperforming the BJP in Mizoram and Telangana, where neither of them won a majority.
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