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One thing’s for certain. The Lok Sabha election results aren’t turning out to be what the exit polls predicted. It is clearly not a sweeping victory for the Narendra Modi-led NDA coalition although they are currently in the lead as India tallies votes. However, trends suggest that the BJP may not secure a majority independently, with the Indian National Congress-led united opposition making notable gains. The thumping majority days of BJP are over and now they must rely on their allies.
A total of 272 seats are required for a majority in the 543-member Lok Sabha, the lower house of India's parliament. The way things stand at present, Modi will be elected as the nation's Prime Minister for the third time in a row, the only Prime Minister after Jawaharlal Nehru, to achieve this feat. Still, things are different this time — the people of India have voted for and strengthened the Opposition bloc christened 'INDIA', led by Rahul Gandhi. The counting started at 8 am today and is still underway. The close-fought battle between NDA & INDIA is reflective of the broader ideological battle ensuing in the country.
Here is an overview of how things stand at the moment:
• The INDIA bloc has made notable progress in several key Hindi heartland states, particularly in Uttar Pradesh (UP), where it is leading in 42 out of 80 seats. In UP, Akhilesh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party is leading in 35 seats, Congress in seven, while BJP holds 34 seats, marking a significant shift in the state's political landscape compared to 2014 and 2019.
• In Rajasthan, the INDIA bloc has made progress with Congress leading in eight seats and other allies securing additional seats, although BJP remains strong with 14 seats. In Bihar, the INDIA bloc has gained ground with Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Congress, and CPI(ML) leading in multiple seats, reducing the BJP's dominance.
• Haryana shows a split performance with Congress and BJP each leading in five seats.
• In Jharkhand, Congress and Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) are making gains, collectively leading in five seats.
• The NDA maintains a stronghold in Madhya Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Delhi, and Chhattisgarh, with BJP leading in all or most seats. BJP leads in all 29 seats in Madhya Pradesh, all four in Himachal Pradesh, all seven in Delhi, and all five in Uttarakhand. In Chhattisgarh, BJP is ahead in 10 seats, with Congress leading in one.
• A prestige battle in Amethi, Ahmedabad has seen Congress emerge victorious. Their Amethi Lok Sabha candidate Kishori Lal Sharma has secured a lead of more than one lakh votes over sitting BJP MP and Union Minister Smriti Irani, who had been dubbed a giant slayer after she removed Rahul Gandhi from the seat in 2019.
• In West Bengal, TMC has managed to keep the BJP at bay and do even better than last time. They are currently leading in 29 seats compared to BJP’s 12.
• Congress has won both Lok Sabha seats in Manipur. This comes as no surprise reflecting the people's anger toward the BJP in the state amid the ethnic violence between the Meitei and Kuki communities.
